# Cluster 1: Understand and evaluate random processes underlying statistical experiments. (Algebra 2 - Supporting Cluster)Archived

Clusters should not be sorted from Major to Supporting and then taught in that order. To do so would strip the coherence of the mathematical ideas and miss the opportunity to enhance the major work of the grade with the supporting clusters.

General Information
Number: MAFS.912.S-IC.1
Title: Understand and evaluate random processes underlying statistical experiments. (Algebra 2 - Supporting Cluster)
Type: Cluster
Subject: Mathematics - Archived
Grade: 912
Domain-Subdomain: Statistics & Probability: Making Inferences & Justifying Conclusions

## Related Standards

This cluster includes the following benchmarks.

## Related Access Points

This cluster includes the following access points.

## Access Points

MAFS.912.S-IC.1.AP.1a
Determine what inferences can be made from statistics.
MAFS.912.S-IC.1.AP.2a
Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event.
MAFS.912.S-IC.1.AP.2b
Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times, predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times.
MAFS.912.S-IC.1.AP.2c
Determine what inferences can be made from the model.

## Related Resources

Vetted resources educators can use to teach the concepts and skills in this topic.

## Lesson Plans

Sensoring Data:

In this follow up lesson, students will explore data collection using the weather station sensor and perform statistical analysis of the data. Students will use a scientific method of inquiry to plan an investigation of their own. This activity is meant to allow students to use a variety of skills they have acquired throughout a statistics unit in a personally meaningful way.

Type: Lesson Plan

Sensoring Data:

In this follow up lesson, students will explore data collection using the weather station sensor and perform statistical analysis of the data. Students will use a scientific method of inquiry to plan an investigation of their own. This activity is meant to allow students to use a variety of skills they have acquired throughout a statistics unit in a personally meaningful way.

Type: Lesson Plan

Hot Coffee Coming Through:

In this lesson, students will explore data collection using the temperature probe sensor and perform statistical analysis of the data. Students will use a scientific method of inquiry to plan an investigation to determine which coffee mug is the best. This activity is meant to allow students to use a variety of skills they have acquired throughout a statistics unit in a problem based STEM challenge. Due to the multiple skills there are many standards that are covered.

There are two options for this lab. The first student handout is for students at an average high school statistics level (Algebra 1) and will allow for standard deviation and graphical analyses of the data. The second option is for advanced students that have been exposed to hypothesis testing of claims (Algebra 2 or AP Stats).

Type: Lesson Plan

Is It a Guess or Statistics?:

This lesson is designed to teach the implementation of random sampling that leads to inference to a larger group or population.

Type: Lesson Plan

Inferences:

This lesson shows students how to produce a survey and display their results. The lesson takes the students through:

1. What is a statistical question?
2. General population verses sample population.
3. What is a hypothesis?
4. What is a survey?
5. How to make inferences.

Type: Lesson Plan

Interpreting Statistics: A Case of Muddying the Waters:

This lesson is intended to help you assess how well students are able to:

• Interpret data and evaluate statistical summaries.
• Critique someone else's interpretations of data and evaluations of statistical summaries.
The lesson also introduces students to the dangers of misapplying simple statistics in real-world contexts, and illustrates some of the common abuses of statistics and charts found in the media.

Type: Lesson Plan

Tree Diagrams and Probability:

This lesson is designed to develop students' ability to create tree diagrams and figure probabilities of events based on those diagrams. This lesson provides links to discussions and activities related to tree diagrams as well as suggested ways to work them into the lesson. Finally, the lesson provides links to follow-up lessons designed for use in succession with the current one.

Type: Lesson Plan

CollegeReview.com:

This is a model-eliciting activity where students have been asked by a new website, CollegeReview.com, to come up with a system to rank various colleges based on five categories; tuition cost, social life, athletics, education, city population and starting salary upon graduation.

Model Eliciting Activities, MEAs, are open-ended, interdisciplinary problem-solving activities that are meant to reveal studentsâ€™ thinking about the concepts embedded in realistic situations. Click here to learn more about MEAs and how they can transform your classroom.

Type: Lesson Plan

## Perspectives Video: Experts

Birdsong Series: Statistical Analysis of Birdsong:

Wei Wu discusses his statistical contributions to the Birdsong project which help to quantify the differences in the changes of the zebra finch's song.

Type: Perspectives Video: Expert

Birdsong Series: Mathematically Modeling Birdsong:

Richard Bertram discusses his mathematical modeling contribution to the Birdsong project that helps the progress of neuron and ion channel research.

Download the CPALMS Perspectives video student note taking guide.

Type: Perspectives Video: Expert

fMRI, Phantom Limb PainÂ and Statistical Noise:

Jens Foell discusses how statistical noise reduction is used in fMRI brain imaging to be able to determine which specifics parts of the brain are related to certain activities and how this relates to patients that suffer from phantom limb pain.

Type: Perspectives Video: Expert

How Math Models Help Insurance Companies After a Hurricane Hits:

Hurricanes can hit at any time! How do insurance companies use math and weather data to help to restore the community?

Download the CPALMS Perspectives video student note taking guide.

Type: Perspectives Video: Expert

Probabilistic Weather Modeling:

Meteorologist from Risk Management discusses the use of probability in predicting hurricane tracks.

Download the CPALMS Perspectives video student note taking guide.

Type: Perspectives Video: Expert

Statistical Inferences and Confidence Intervals :

Florida State University Counseling Psychologist discusses how he uses confidence intervals to make inferences on college students' experiences on campus based on a sample of students.

Type: Perspectives Video: Expert

Mathematically Exploring the Wakulla Caves:

The tide is high!  How can we statistically prove there is a relationship between the tides on the Gulf Coast and in a fresh water spring 20 miles from each other?

Download the CPALMS Perspectives video student note taking guide.

Type: Perspectives Video: Expert

MicroGravity Sensors & Statistics:

Statistical analysis played an essential role in using microgravity sensors to determine location of caves in Wakulla County.

Download the CPALMS Perspectives video student note taking guide.

Type: Perspectives Video: Expert

History of Probability and the Problem of Points:

What was the first question that started probability theory?

Download the CPALMS Perspectives video student note taking guide.

Type: Perspectives Video: Expert

Hurricanes & Strong Deep Ocean Currents:

COAPS oceanographer Steve Morey describes how math is used to help research hurricanes and strong deep ocean currents that could effect deep water oil rigs.

Download the CPALMS Perspectives video student note taking guide.

Type: Perspectives Video: Expert

## Perspectives Video: Professional/Enthusiasts

Fishery Independent vs Dependent Sampling Methods for Fishery Management:

NOAA Scientist Doug Devries discusses the differences between fishery independent surveys and fishery independent surveys.  Discussion includes trap sampling as well as camera sampling. Using graphs to show changes in population of red snapper.

Type: Perspectives Video: Professional/Enthusiast

Camera versus Trap Sampling: Improving how NOAA Samples Fish :

Underwater sampling with cameras has made fishery management more accurate for NOAA scientists.

Type: Perspectives Video: Professional/Enthusiast

Hydrologic Modeling and Reservoir Simulation:

Dr. Tom Van Lent and Rajendra Paudel describe how modeling and simulation of water reservoirs are used to inform decisions about regulation of water flow in the Everglades.

Download the CPALMS Perspectives video student note taking guide.

Type: Perspectives Video: Professional/Enthusiast

Modeling the Everglades with Mathematics:

Dr. Tom Van Lent and Rajendra Paudel describe how hydrologic modeling is used to evaluate environmental conditions in the Everglades.

Download the CPALMS Perspectives video student note taking guide.

Type: Perspectives Video: Professional/Enthusiast

Hurricane Dennis & Failed Math Models:

What happens when math models go wrong in forecasting hurricanes?

Download the CPALMS Perspectives video student note taking guide.

Type: Perspectives Video: Professional/Enthusiast

Making Inferences about Wetland Population Sizes:

This ecologist from the Coastal Plains Institute discusses sampling techniques that are used to gather data to make statistical inferences about amphibian populations in the wetlands of the Apalachicola National Forest.

Type: Perspectives Video: Professional/Enthusiast

Population Sampling and Beekeeping:

This buzzworthy video features statistics, sampling, and how scientists make inferences about populations.

Type: Perspectives Video: Professional/Enthusiast

## Problem-Solving Tasks

Sarah, the Chimpanzee:

The purpose of this task is to give students experience in using simulation to determine if observed results are consistent with a given model (in this case, the "just guessing" model).

Type: Problem-Solving Task

Why Randomize?:

This task requires students to estimate the mean (average) area of the population of 100 rectangles using the average area of a sample of 5 rectangles. Students are asked to make one estimate using a judgement sample and another using a random sample of the population. Finally, students are asked to consider bias in sampling methods.

Type: Problem-Solving Task

Strict Parents:

This task challenges students to describe parameter of interest for the given context, and design a sample survey.

Type: Problem-Solving Task

Musical Preferences:

This problem solving task asks students to make deductions about what kind of music students like by examining a table with data.

Type: Problem-Solving Task

School Advisory Panel:

Students are asked to choose the best sampling method for choosing the new School Advisory Panel.

Type: Problem-Solving Task

Block Scheduling:

In this task, output is given from a computer-generated simulation, generating size-100 samples of data from an assumed school population of 2000 students under hypotheses about the true distribution of yes/no voters. Students are asked to draw conclusions about reliability using simulated distributions.

Type: Problem-Solving Task

Unexpected Answers:

This lesson is designed to introduce students to statistical situations where the probabilities or outcomes might not be what is first expected. The lesson provides links to discussions and activities motivated by the idea of unexpected answers. Finally, the lesson provides links to follow-up lessons designed for use in succession with an introduction to probability and unexpected answers in probability.

Type: Problem-Solving Task

## Teaching Ideas

The Birthday Paradox:

The exercise detailed in this resource poses a paradox regarding birthdays. The question raised: how large does a group have to be in order to have a 50% or better probability that two or more people in the group share the same birthday? Intuitions about probability are challenged as students use their calculators to simulate random values to represent the birthdays and reach an answer.

Type: Teaching Idea

Conditional Probability and Probability of Simultaneous Events:

This lesson is designed to further students' practice with probability as well as introduce them to conditional probability and probabilities of simultaneous independent events. The lesson provides links to discussions and activities related to conditional and simultaneous probabilities as well as suggested ways to integrate them into the lesson. Finally, this lesson provides links to follow-up lessons designed for use in succession with this one.

Type: Teaching Idea

## Text Resources

Sample Size Calculation:

This informational text resource is intended to support reading in the content area. This article describes the important process used when setting up trials for statistical investigation. The article explains each parameter that is needed to calculate the sample size, then provides examples and illustrates the process. This article will enhance an upper level math course's study of statistics after significance levels and basic inferential statistics concepts have been taught.

Type: Text Resource

Scientists See the World Differently:

This informational text resource is intended to support reading in the content area. Pew Research Center surveyed scientists and the general public on 12 science oriented issues, including genetically modified foods, vaccines, nuclear power and evolution. Results of the survey showed large discrepancies between the thoughts, causes and recommendations on the issues of the scientists and the general public. Sample sizes and margins of errors are given on the survey results which are represented in percent form. The overall survey showed that the public and the scientists see the world very differently.

Type: Text Resource

Understanding Uncertainty: What Was the Probability of Obama Winning?:

This informational text resource is intended to support reading in the content area. The article examines various factors that changed the uncertainty of whether Barack Obama would win the 2008 election. Specifically,the article discusses probability, the science of quantifying uncertainty. The article questions common methods for assessing probability where symmetrical outcomes are assumed. Finally, the author explains how to use past evidence to assess the chances of future events.

Type: Text Resource

How to Win at Rock-Paper-Scissors:

This informational text resource is intended to support reading in the content area. This article describes a new study about the game rock-paper-scissors. The study reveals that people do not play randomly; there are patterns and hidden psychology players frequently use. Understanding these potential moves can help a player increase their winning edge. As part of interpreting the results of the study, the article references the Nash equilibrium and the "win-stay lose-shift" strategy.

Type: Text Resource

## Video/Audio/Animation

MIT BLOSSOMS - Flu Math Games:

This video lesson shows students that math can play a role in understanding how an infectious disease spreads and how it can be controlled. During this lesson, students will see and use both deterministic and probabilistic models and will learn by doing through role-playing exercises. There are no formal prerequisites, as students in any high school or even middle school math class could enjoy this learning video. But more advanced classes can go into the optional applied probability modeling that accompanies the module in a downloadable pdf file. The primary exercises between video segments of this lesson are class-intensive simulation games in which members of the class 'infect' each other under alternative math modeling assumptions about disease progression. Also there is an occasional class discussion and local discussion with nearby classmates.

Type: Video/Audio/Animation

## Virtual Manipulatives

Advanced Fire Simulator - Shodor:

In this online activity, students burn a simulated forest and adjust the probability that the fire spreads from one tree to the other. This simulation also records data for each trial including the burn probability, where the fire started, the percent of trees burned, and how long the fire lasted. This activity allows students to explore the idea of chaos in a simulation of a realistic scenario. Supplemental materials, including background information about the topics covered, a description of how to use the application, and exploration questions for use with the java applet are linked to the applet.

Type: Virtual Manipulative

Simple Monty Hall:

In this activity, students select one of three doors in an attempt to find a prize that is hidden behind one of them. After their first selection, one of the doors that doesn't have the prize behind it is revealed and the student has to decide whether to switch to the one remaining door or stay on the door of their first choice. This situation, referred to as the Monty Hall problem, was made famous on the show "Let's Make A Deal" with host Monty Hall. This activity allows students to explore the idea of conditional probability as well as unexpected probability. This activity includes supplemental materials, including background information about the topics covered, a description of how to use the application, and exploration questions for use with the java applet.

Type: Virtual Manipulative

Spinner:

In this activity, students adjust how many sections there are on a fair spinner then run simulated trials on that spinner as a way to develop concepts of probability. A table next to the spinner displays the theoretical probability for each color section of the spinner and records the experimental probability from the spinning trials. This activity allows students to explore the topics of experimental and theoretical probability by seeing them displayed side by side for the spinner they have created. This activity includes supplemental materials, including background information about the topics covered, a description of how to use the application, and exploration questions for use with the java applet.

Type: Virtual Manipulative

Interactive Marbles:

This online manipulative allows the student to simulate placing marbles into a bag and finding the probability of pulling out certain combinations of marbles. This allows exploration of probabilities of multiple events as well as probability with and without replacement. The tabs above the applet provide access to supplemental materials, including background information about the topics covered, a description of how to use the application, and exploration questions for use with the Java applet.

Type: Virtual Manipulative

## Worksheet

Replacement and Probability:

This lesson is designed to develop students' understanding of sampling with and without replacement and its effects on the probability of drawing a desired object. The lesson provides links to discussions and activities related to replacement and probability as well as suggested ways to work them into the lesson. Finally, the lesson provides links to follow-up lessons that are designed to be used in succession with the current one.

Type: Worksheet

## Student Resources

Vetted resources students can use to learn the concepts and skills in this topic.

## Perspectives Video: Experts

Mathematically Exploring the Wakulla Caves:

The tide is high!  How can we statistically prove there is a relationship between the tides on the Gulf Coast and in a fresh water spring 20 miles from each other?

Download the CPALMS Perspectives video student note taking guide.

Type: Perspectives Video: Expert

MicroGravity Sensors & Statistics:

Statistical analysis played an essential role in using microgravity sensors to determine location of caves in Wakulla County.

Download the CPALMS Perspectives video student note taking guide.

Type: Perspectives Video: Expert

## Perspectives Video: Professional/Enthusiast

Population Sampling and Beekeeping:

This buzzworthy video features statistics, sampling, and how scientists make inferences about populations.

Type: Perspectives Video: Professional/Enthusiast

## Problem-Solving Tasks

Musical Preferences:

This problem solving task asks students to make deductions about what kind of music students like by examining a table with data.

Type: Problem-Solving Task

School Advisory Panel:

Students are asked to choose the best sampling method for choosing the new School Advisory Panel.

Type: Problem-Solving Task

## Virtual Manipulatives

Advanced Fire Simulator - Shodor:

In this online activity, students burn a simulated forest and adjust the probability that the fire spreads from one tree to the other. This simulation also records data for each trial including the burn probability, where the fire started, the percent of trees burned, and how long the fire lasted. This activity allows students to explore the idea of chaos in a simulation of a realistic scenario. Supplemental materials, including background information about the topics covered, a description of how to use the application, and exploration questions for use with the java applet are linked to the applet.

Type: Virtual Manipulative

Simple Monty Hall:

In this activity, students select one of three doors in an attempt to find a prize that is hidden behind one of them. After their first selection, one of the doors that doesn't have the prize behind it is revealed and the student has to decide whether to switch to the one remaining door or stay on the door of their first choice. This situation, referred to as the Monty Hall problem, was made famous on the show "Let's Make A Deal" with host Monty Hall. This activity allows students to explore the idea of conditional probability as well as unexpected probability. This activity includes supplemental materials, including background information about the topics covered, a description of how to use the application, and exploration questions for use with the java applet.

Type: Virtual Manipulative

Spinner:

In this activity, students adjust how many sections there are on a fair spinner then run simulated trials on that spinner as a way to develop concepts of probability. A table next to the spinner displays the theoretical probability for each color section of the spinner and records the experimental probability from the spinning trials. This activity allows students to explore the topics of experimental and theoretical probability by seeing them displayed side by side for the spinner they have created. This activity includes supplemental materials, including background information about the topics covered, a description of how to use the application, and exploration questions for use with the java applet.

Type: Virtual Manipulative

Interactive Marbles:

This online manipulative allows the student to simulate placing marbles into a bag and finding the probability of pulling out certain combinations of marbles. This allows exploration of probabilities of multiple events as well as probability with and without replacement. The tabs above the applet provide access to supplemental materials, including background information about the topics covered, a description of how to use the application, and exploration questions for use with the Java applet.

Type: Virtual Manipulative

## Parent Resources

Vetted resources caregivers can use to help students learn the concepts and skills in this topic.

## Perspectives Video: Professional/Enthusiast

Population Sampling and Beekeeping:

This buzzworthy video features statistics, sampling, and how scientists make inferences about populations.

Type: Perspectives Video: Professional/Enthusiast

## Problem-Solving Tasks

Musical Preferences:

This problem solving task asks students to make deductions about what kind of music students like by examining a table with data.

Type: Problem-Solving Task

School Advisory Panel:

Students are asked to choose the best sampling method for choosing the new School Advisory Panel.

Type: Problem-Solving Task