Standard 2: Develop an understanding of probability. Find and compare experimental and theoretical probabilities.

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General Information
Number: MA.7.DP.2
Title: Develop an understanding of probability. Find and compare experimental and theoretical probabilities.
Type: Standard
Subject: Mathematics (B.E.S.T.)
Grade: 7
Strand: Data Analysis and Probability

Related Benchmarks

This cluster includes the following benchmarks.

Related Access Points

This cluster includes the following access points.

Access Points

MA.7.DP.2.AP.1
Use tree diagrams, frequency tables, organized lists, and/or simulations to collect data from a simple experiment.
MA.7.DP.2.AP.2
Given the probability of a simple chance event written as a fraction, percentage or decimal between 0 and 1, determine how likely is it that an event will occur.
MA.7.DP.2.AP.3
Determine the theoretical probability of a simple chance event.
MA.7.DP.2.AP.4
Conduct a simple experiment to find experimental probabilities.

Related Resources

Vetted resources educators can use to teach the concepts and skills in this topic.

Formative Assessments

Hen Eggs:

Students are asked to estimate the probability of a chance event based on observed frequencies.

Type: Formative Assessment

Game of Chance:

Students are asked to estimate the frequency of an event given its probability and explain why an expected frequency might differ from an observed frequency.

Type: Formative Assessment

Marble Probability:

Students are asked to determine probabilities based on observed outcomes and to determine if the outcomes appear to be equally likely.

Type: Formative Assessment

Number Cube:

Students are asked to determine probabilities based on observed outcomes and to determine if the outcomes appear to be equally likely.

Type: Formative Assessment

Probability or Not?:

Students are asked to determine whether or not a given number could represent the probability of an event.

Type: Formative Assessment

Technical Difficulties:

Students are given a scenario and asked to determine the probability of two different events.

Type: Formative Assessment

Likely or Unlikely?:

Students are asked to determine the likelihood of an event given a probability.

Type: Formative Assessment

Likelihood of an Event:

Students are asked to determine the likelihood of an event given a probability.

Type: Formative Assessment

Errand Runner:

Students are asked to determine the probability of a chance event and explain possible causes for the difference between the probability and observed frequencies.

Type: Formative Assessment

Lesson Plans

Genetics Has Gone to the Dogs!:

This lesson uses pooches to teach about pedigrees and the impact of artificial selection on individuals and populations as well as to drive home math concepts already discussed in lessons on Punnet squares.

Type: Lesson Plan

Genetics can be a Monster!:

In this lesson, students will use Punnett squares to calculate the probabilities of different genotypes and phenotypes produced by genetic crosses.

Type: Lesson Plan

Independent Compound Probability:

During this lesson, students will use Punnett Squares to determine the probability of an offspring's characteristics.

Type: Lesson Plan

Computer Simulated Experiments in Genetics:

A computer simulation package called "Star Genetics" is used to generate progeny for one or two additional generations. The distribution of the phenotypes of the progeny provide data from which the parental genotypes can be inferred. The number of progeny can be chosen by the student in order to increase the student's confidence in the inference.

Type: Lesson Plan

Planning the perfect wedding:

Students will decide what is the best month to celebrate an outdoor wedding. The couple is looking for the perfect wedding day. What is the definition of a perfect day? It has to be a Saturday or Sunday with a 20% or less probability of rain and sunny but not too hot. Based on the information provided , students will find the month in which the probability of having a rainy day and the probability of having a super hot day (temperature higher than 75º F) are minimal.

Model Eliciting Activities, MEAs, are open-ended, interdisciplinary problem-solving activities that are meant to reveal students’ thinking about the concepts embedded in realistic situations. Click here to learn more about MEAs and how they can transform your classroom.

Type: Lesson Plan

Probabilities and Punnett Squares:

Students simulate the process of meiosis for an alien society. The students choose physical characteristics for hair, nose and eyes corresponding to genes and then generate two alien babies. Then pictures of the parents and babies are drawn, with similarities and differences noted and explained.

Type: Lesson Plan

Introduction to Probability:

This resource is designed to introduce students to the concept of probability: the probability of a rare event is represented by a positive number close to zero, the probability of a nearly certain event occurring is represented by a positive number slightly less than one. Students will indicate the approximate probability of events on a number line and determine which events are more likely than others.

Type: Lesson Plan

Original Student Tutorial

Introduction to Probability:

Learn how to calculate the probability of simple events, that probability is the likeliness of an event occurring, and that some events may be more likely than others to occur in this interactive tutorial.

Type: Original Student Tutorial

Perspectives Video: Experts

How Math Models Help Insurance Companies After a Hurricane Hits:

Hurricanes can hit at any time! How do insurance companies use math and weather data to help to restore the community?

Download the CPALMS Perspectives video student note taking guide.

Type: Perspectives Video: Expert

Probabilistic Weather Modeling:

Meteorologist from Risk Management discusses the use of probability in predicting hurricane tracks.

Download the CPALMS Perspectives video student note taking guide.

Type: Perspectives Video: Expert

Let's Make a Math Deal:

Should I keep my choice or switch?  Learn more about the origins and probability behind the Monty Hall door picking dilemma and how Game Theory and strategy effect the probability.

Download the CPALMS Perspectives video student note taking guide.

Type: Perspectives Video: Expert

History of Probability and the Problem of Points:

What was the first question that started probability theory?

Download the CPALMS Perspectives video student note taking guide.

Type: Perspectives Video: Expert

Text Resource

Shuffling Shenanigans:

This informational text resource is intended to support reading in the content area. A student in love with magic card tricks asks and answers his own math questions after pursuing a career as a mathematician in order to solve them. How many times must a deck be shuffled to achieve a truly random mix of cards? The answer lies within.

Type: Text Resource

Tutorials

Finding Probability:

This video demonstrates several examples of finding probability of random events.

Type: Tutorial

The Limits of Probability:

This video discusses the limits of probability as between 0 and 1.

Type: Tutorial

Comparing Theoretical to Experimental Probabilites:

This video compares theoretical and experimantal probabilities and sources of possible discrepancy.

Type: Tutorial

Finding Probability of a Simple Event:

This video demonstrates how to find the probability of a simple event.

Type: Tutorial

Making Predictions with Probability:

Watch the video as it predicts the number of times a spinner will land on a given outcome.

Type: Tutorial

Student Resources

Vetted resources students can use to learn the concepts and skills in this topic.

Original Student Tutorial

Introduction to Probability:

Learn how to calculate the probability of simple events, that probability is the likeliness of an event occurring, and that some events may be more likely than others to occur in this interactive tutorial.

Type: Original Student Tutorial

Tutorials

Finding Probability:

This video demonstrates several examples of finding probability of random events.

Type: Tutorial

The Limits of Probability:

This video discusses the limits of probability as between 0 and 1.

Type: Tutorial

Comparing Theoretical to Experimental Probabilites:

This video compares theoretical and experimantal probabilities and sources of possible discrepancy.

Type: Tutorial

Finding Probability of a Simple Event:

This video demonstrates how to find the probability of a simple event.

Type: Tutorial

Making Predictions with Probability:

Watch the video as it predicts the number of times a spinner will land on a given outcome.

Type: Tutorial

Parent Resources

Vetted resources caregivers can use to help students learn the concepts and skills in this topic.