General Information
Test Item Specifications
Students will determine the likelihood or probability of a simple event occurring.
Students will compare probabilities of events.
Students will make predictions based on experimental or theoretical probability of independent or dependent events.
Items may include determining the probability of a compound event both with and without replacement.
Items may include distinguishing between independent and dependent events.
Probabilities should be expressed as whole numbers, fractions, or decimals.
Items assessing compound events should not exceed sixteen outcomes in a sample space.
Items should be set in real-world context.
Graphics should be used in some of these items, as appropriate.
Sample Test Items (1)
| Test Item # | Question | Difficulty | Type |
| Sample Item 1 | Joaquin has the set of cards shown below. joaquin will shuffle the cards, select one without looking, record the number of the card, and return the card to the set. he will repeat this process 50 times. which is closest to the number of times he should expect to select a card with a number greater than 5? |
N/A | MC: Multiple Choice |
Related Resources
Image/Photograph
| Name | Description |
| Clipart ETC: Probability | Clipart images that relate to probability. |
Lesson Plans
| Name | Description |
| Roll of the Dice and Some Turkey Fun! | Students will conduct experiments on their own to see the difference between experimental and theoretical probabilities. |
| A Roll of the Dice | What are your chances of tossing a particular number on a number cube? Students collect data by experimenting and then converting the data in terms of probability. By the end of the lesson, students should have a basic understanding of simple events. |
| Marble Mania | In this lesson, "by flipping coins and pulling marbles out of a bag, students begin to develop a basic understanding of probabilities, how they are determined, and how the outcome of an experiment can be affected by the number of times it is conducted." (from Science NetLinks) |
Problem-Solving Task
| Name | Description |
| Space Math: Lunar Cratering | Students explore the formation of craters on the lunar surface using real world imaging data and mathematical reasoning. Students make observations and inferences about the time that impact craters were formed using probability and percentages. |
Video/Audio/Animation
| Name | Description |
| MIT BLOSSOMS - Flu Math Games | This video lesson shows students that math can play a role in understanding how an infectious disease spreads and how it can be controlled. During this lesson, students will see and use both deterministic and probabilistic models and will learn by doing through role-playing exercises. There are no formal prerequisites, as students in any high school or even middle school math class could enjoy this learning video. But more advanced classes can go into the optional applied probability modeling that accompanies the module in a downloadable pdf file. The primary exercises between video segments of this lesson are class-intensive simulation games in which members of the class 'infect' each other under alternative math modeling assumptions about disease progression. Also there is an occasional class discussion and local discussion with nearby classmates. |
Virtual Manipulative
| Name | Description |
| Random Drawing Tool - Individual Trials (Probability Simulation) | This virtual manipulative allows one to make a random drawing box, putting up to 21 tickets with the numbers 0-11 on them. After selecting which tickets to put in the box, the applet will choose tickets at random. There is also an option which will show the theoretical probability for each ticket. |
Student Resources
Virtual Manipulative
| Name | Description |
| Random Drawing Tool - Individual Trials (Probability Simulation): | This virtual manipulative allows one to make a random drawing box, putting up to 21 tickets with the numbers 0-11 on them. After selecting which tickets to put in the box, the applet will choose tickets at random. There is also an option which will show the theoretical probability for each ticket. |