CPALMS Logo Generated on 9/18/2025 at 4:54 PM
The webpage this document was printed/exported from can be found at the following URL:
https://www.cpalms.org//PreviewStandard/Preview/5660
Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations. For example, compare the chance of having lung cancer if you are a smoker with the chance of being a smoker if you have lung cancer. ★
Standard #: MAFS.912.S-CP.1.5Archived Standard
Standard Information
General Information
Subject Area: Mathematics
Grade: 912
Domain-Subdomain: Statistics & Probability: Conditional Probability & the Rules of Probability
Cluster: Level 2: Basic Application of Skills & Concepts
Cluster: Understand independence and conditional probability and use them to interpret data. (Algebra 2 - Additional Cluster) -

Clusters should not be sorted from Major to Supporting and then taught in that order. To do so would strip the coherence of the mathematical ideas and miss the opportunity to enhance the major work of the grade with the supporting clusters.
Date Adopted or Revised: 02/14
Content Complexity Rating: Level 2: Basic Application of Skills & Concepts - More Information
Date of Last Rating: 02/14
Status: State Board Approved - Archived
Related Courses
Related Resources
Lesson Plans
  • Casino Royale # Students examine games of chance to determine the difference between dependent and independent conditional probability.
  • Modeling Conditional Probabilities 2 # This lesson unit is intended to help you assess how well students understand conditional probability, and, in particular, to help you identify and assist students who have the following difficulties representing events as a subset of a sample space using tables and tree diagrams and understanding when conditional probabilities are equal for particular and general situations.
  • Medical Testing # This lesson unit is intended to help you assess how well students are able to:
    • make sense of a real life situation and decide what math to apply to the problem
    • understand and calculate the conditional probability of an event A, given an event B, and interpret the answer in terms of a model
    • represent events as a subset of a sample space using tables, tree diagrams, and Venn diagrams
    • interpret the results and communicate their reasoning clearly
Perspectives Video: Expert
Problem-Solving Tasks
  • Rain and Lightning # This problem solving task challenges students to determine if two weather events are independent, and use that conclusion to find the probability of having similar weather events under certain conditions.
  • Breakfast Before School # The purpose of this task is to assess a student's ability to explain the meaning of independence in a simple context.
  • The Titanic 2 # This task lets students explore the concepts of probability as a fraction of outcomes using two-way tables.
  • The Titanic 3 # This problem solving task asks students to determine probabilities and draw conclusions about the survival rates on the Titanic using a table of data.
  • Unexpected Answers # This lesson is designed to introduce students to statistical situations where the probabilities or outcomes might not be what is first expected. The lesson provides links to discussions and activities motivated by the idea of unexpected answers. Finally, the lesson provides links to follow-up lessons designed for use in succession with an introduction to probability and unexpected answers in probability.
Teaching Idea
  • Conditional Probability and Probability of Simultaneous Events # This lesson is designed to further students' practice with probability as well as introduce them to conditional probability and probabilities of simultaneous independent events. The lesson provides links to discussions and activities related to conditional and simultaneous probabilities as well as suggested ways to integrate them into the lesson. Finally, this lesson provides links to follow-up lessons designed for use in succession with this one.
Text Resources
  • The Logic of Drug Testing # This informational text resource is intended to support reading in the content area. This article explores the reliability of drug tests for athletes, using mathematics. The author attempts to address this issue by relating drug tests to conditional probability. Throughout the text, various numbers that affect the calculation of a reliable probability are discussed. Numbers such as test sensitivity, test specificity, and weight of evidence are related to Bayes' theorem, which is ultimately used to calculate the conditional probability.
  • Understanding Uncertainty: What Was the Probability of Obama Winning? # This informational text resource is intended to support reading in the content area. The article examines various factors that changed the uncertainty of whether Barack Obama would win the 2008 election. Specifically,the article discusses probability, the science of quantifying uncertainty. The article questions common methods for assessing probability where symmetrical outcomes are assumed. Finally, the author explains how to use past evidence to assess the chances of future events.
Print Page | Close this window