Standard #: MAFS.912.S-MD.2.7 (Archived Standard)


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Analyze decisions and strategies using probability concepts (e.g., product testing, medical testing, pulling a hockey goalie at the end of a game). ★


Related Courses

Course Number1111 Course Title222
1200340: Algebra 2 Honors (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1210300: Probability and Statistics Honors (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2019, 2019 - 2022, 2022 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1298310: Advanced Topics in Mathematics (formerly 129830A) (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022 (course terminated))
1501300: Personal Fitness (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1501310: Fitness Lifestyle Design (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1501320: Fitness Issues for Adolescence (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1501390: Comprehensive Fitness (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1502460: Self Defense Activities (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1502470: Recreational Activities (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1502480: Outdoor Education (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1502490: Care and Prevention of Athletic Injuries (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
0800300: Health 1-Life Management Skills (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
0800310: Health 2-Personal Health (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
0800330: Personal, Social, and Family Relationships (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
0800350: Adolescent Health Problems (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
0800360: Health Explorations Honors (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
0800370: Parenting 1 (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
0800380: Parenting 2 (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
0800390: Health for Expectant Parents (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
7920050: Access Health and Safety (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2017, 2017 - 2018, 2018 - 2023, 2023 and beyond (current))
1800300: Air Force: Aerospace Science 1 (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2023, 2023 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1800310: Air Force: Aerospace Science 2 (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2023, 2023 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1800320: Air Force: Aerospace Science 3 (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1800330: Air Force: Aerospace Science 4 - Leadership Development (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1800340: Advanced Aerospace Science (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2023, 2023 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1800350: Air Force: Aerospace Science 4 - Transportation (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2023, 2023 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1800360: Air Force: Aerospace Science 4 (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1800400: Leadership Education 1 (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2023, 2023 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1800410: Leadership Education 2 (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2023, 2023 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1801300: Army: Leadership Education and Training 1 (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2023, 2023 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1801310: Army: Leadership Education and Training 2 (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2023, 2023 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1801320: Army: Leadership Education and Training 3 (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2023, 2023 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1801330: Army: Leadership Education and Training 4 (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2023, 2023 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1802300: Naval Science 1 (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2023, 2023 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1802310: Naval Science 2 (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2023, 2023 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1802320: Naval Science 3 (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2023, 2023 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1802330: Naval Science 4 (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2023, 2023 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1803300: Marine Corps: Leadership Education 1 (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2023, 2023 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1803310: Marine Corps: Leadership Education 2 (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2023, 2023 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1803320: Marine Corps: Leadership Education 3 (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2023, 2023 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1803330: Marine Corps: Leadership Education 4 (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2023, 2023 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
1501380: Personal Fitness Trainer (Specifically in versions: 2014 - 2015, 2015 - 2022, 2022 - 2024, 2024 and beyond (current))
7915020: Access Personal Fitness (Specifically in versions: 2015 - 2018, 2018 - 2023, 2023 and beyond (current))


Related Resources

Lesson Plans

Name Description
Livestock Plans for Raising Red Nosed Reindeer

This lesson about genetics and mutations investigates how red nosed reindeer could be raised in a livestock setting. Students will draw Punnett squares and design livestock plans for reproduction of red nosed reindeer.

The Monty Hall Problem or How to Outsmart a Game Show and Win a Car This lesson teaches students how to make decisions in the face of uncertainty by using decision trees. It is aimed for high school kids with a minimal background in probability; the students only need to know how to calculate the probability of two uncorrelated events both occurring (ie flipping 2 heads in a row). Over the course of this lesson, students will learn about the role of uncertainty in decision making, how to make and use a decision tree, how to use limiting cases to develop an intuition, and how this applies to everyday life.
Phalangelpodscribitis? - Analysis with Probability

In this Model Eliciting Activity, MEA students will be presented with seven (7) medications that will help cure an individual of Phalangelpodscribitis (a fictitious ailment). Students will be given the effectiveness of each medication, the cost to patients with and without insurance, and the possible side effects of each. Each team will be tasked with ranking these medications for a client to help decide the pros and cons of the medications that should be used in treating Phalangelpodscribitis (PPS).

Model Eliciting Activities, MEAs, are open-ended, interdisciplinary problem-solving activities that reveal students’ thinking about the concepts embedded in realistic situations. MEAs resemble engineering problems and encourage students to create solutions in the form of mathematical and scientific models. Students work in teams to apply their knowledge of science and mathematics to solve an open-ended problem while considering constraints and tradeoffs. Students integrate their ELA skills into MEAs as they are asked to document their thought processes. MEAs follow a problem-based, student-centered approach to learning, where students are encouraged to grapple with the problem while the teacher acts as a facilitator. To learn more about MEAs visit: https://www.cpalms.org/cpalms/mea.aspx

Perspectives Video: Experts

Name Description
How Math Models Help Insurance Companies After a Hurricane Hits

Hurricanes can hit at any time! How do insurance companies use math and weather data to help to restore the community?

Download the CPALMS Perspectives video student note taking guide.

Probabilistic Weather Modeling

Meteorologist from Risk Management discusses the use of probability in predicting hurricane tracks.

Download the CPALMS Perspectives video student note taking guide.

Problem-Solving Task

Name Description
Unexpected Answers This lesson is designed to introduce students to statistical situations where the probabilities or outcomes might not be what is first expected. The lesson provides links to discussions and activities motivated by the idea of unexpected answers. Finally, the lesson provides links to follow-up lessons designed for use in succession with an introduction to probability and unexpected answers in probability.

Teaching Idea

Name Description
Conditional Probability and Probability of Simultaneous Events This lesson is designed to further students' practice with probability as well as introduce them to conditional probability and probabilities of simultaneous independent events. The lesson provides links to discussions and activities related to conditional and simultaneous probabilities as well as suggested ways to integrate them into the lesson. Finally, this lesson provides links to follow-up lessons designed for use in succession with this one.

Text Resource

Name Description
Understanding Uncertainty: What Was the Probability of Obama Winning?

This informational text resource is intended to support reading in the content area. The article examines various factors that changed the uncertainty of whether Barack Obama would win the 2008 election. Specifically,the article discusses probability, the science of quantifying uncertainty. The article questions common methods for assessing probability where symmetrical outcomes are assumed. Finally, the author explains how to use past evidence to assess the chances of future events.

Virtual Manipulatives

Name Description
Advanced Fire Simulator - Shodor

In this online activity, students burn a simulated forest and adjust the probability that the fire spreads from one tree to the other. This simulation also records data for each trial including the burn probability, where the fire started, the percent of trees burned, and how long the fire lasted. This activity allows students to explore the idea of chaos in a simulation of a realistic scenario. Supplemental materials, including background information about the topics covered, a description of how to use the application, and exploration questions for use with the java applet are linked to the applet.

Simple Monty Hall

In this activity, students select one of three doors in an attempt to find a prize that is hidden behind one of them. After their first selection, one of the doors that doesn't have the prize behind it is revealed and the student has to decide whether to switch to the one remaining door or stay on the door of their first choice. This situation, referred to as the Monty Hall problem, was made famous on the show "Let's Make A Deal" with host Monty Hall. This activity allows students to explore the idea of conditional probability as well as unexpected probability. This activity includes supplemental materials, including background information about the topics covered, a description of how to use the application, and exploration questions for use with the java applet.

Student Resources

Virtual Manipulatives

Name Description
Advanced Fire Simulator - Shodor:

In this online activity, students burn a simulated forest and adjust the probability that the fire spreads from one tree to the other. This simulation also records data for each trial including the burn probability, where the fire started, the percent of trees burned, and how long the fire lasted. This activity allows students to explore the idea of chaos in a simulation of a realistic scenario. Supplemental materials, including background information about the topics covered, a description of how to use the application, and exploration questions for use with the java applet are linked to the applet.

Simple Monty Hall:

In this activity, students select one of three doors in an attempt to find a prize that is hidden behind one of them. After their first selection, one of the doors that doesn't have the prize behind it is revealed and the student has to decide whether to switch to the one remaining door or stay on the door of their first choice. This situation, referred to as the Monty Hall problem, was made famous on the show "Let's Make A Deal" with host Monty Hall. This activity allows students to explore the idea of conditional probability as well as unexpected probability. This activity includes supplemental materials, including background information about the topics covered, a description of how to use the application, and exploration questions for use with the java applet.



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