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Standard #: MAFS.912.S-IC.1.2 (Archived Standard)

This document was generated on CPALMS - www.cpalms.org

Decide if a specified model is consistent with results from a given data-generating process, e.g., using simulation. For example, a model says a spinning coin falls heads up with probability 0.5. Would a result of 5 tails in a row cause you to question the model

General Information

Subject Area: Mathematics
Domain-Subdomain: Statistics & Probability: Making Inferences & Justifying Conclusions
Cluster: Understand and evaluate random processes underlying statistical experiments. (Algebra 2 - Supporting Cluster) -

Clusters should not be sorted from Major to Supporting and then taught in that order. To do so would strip the coherence of the mathematical ideas and miss the opportunity to enhance the major work of the grade with the supporting clusters.

Date of Last Rating: 02/14
Status: State Board Approved - Archived

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Perspectives Video: Professional/Enthusiasts

 Name Description Hydrologic Modeling and Reservoir Simulation Dr. Tom Van Lent and Rajendra Paudel describe how modeling and simulation of water reservoirs are used to inform decisions about regulation of water flow in the Everglades. Download the CPALMS Perspectives video student note taking guide. Modeling the Everglades with Mathematics Dr. Tom Van Lent and Rajendra Paudel describe how hydrologic modeling is used to evaluate environmental conditions in the Everglades. Download the CPALMS Perspectives video student note taking guide. Hurricane Dennis & Failed Math Models What happens when math models go wrong in forecasting hurricanes? Download the CPALMS Perspectives video student note taking guide.

 Name Description Sarah, the Chimpanzee The purpose of this task is to give students experience in using simulation to determine if observed results are consistent with a given model (in this case, the "just guessing" model). Block Scheduling In this task, output is given from a computer-generated simulation, generating size-100 samples of data from an assumed school population of 2000 students under hypotheses about the true distribution of yes/no voters. Students are asked to draw conclusions about reliability using simulated distributions. Unexpected Answers This lesson is designed to introduce students to statistical situations where the probabilities or outcomes might not be what is first expected. The lesson provides links to discussions and activities motivated by the idea of unexpected answers. Finally, the lesson provides links to follow-up lessons designed for use in succession with an introduction to probability and unexpected answers in probability.

Teaching Idea

 Name Description Conditional Probability and Probability of Simultaneous Events This lesson is designed to further students' practice with probability as well as introduce them to conditional probability and probabilities of simultaneous independent events. The lesson provides links to discussions and activities related to conditional and simultaneous probabilities as well as suggested ways to integrate them into the lesson. Finally, this lesson provides links to follow-up lessons designed for use in succession with this one.

Text Resource

 Name Description Understanding Uncertainty: What Was the Probability of Obama Winning? This informational text resource is intended to support reading in the content area. The article examines various factors that changed the uncertainty of whether Barack Obama would win the 2008 election. Specifically,the article discusses probability, the science of quantifying uncertainty. The article questions common methods for assessing probability where symmetrical outcomes are assumed. Finally, the author explains how to use past evidence to assess the chances of future events.

Video/Audio/Animation

 Name Description MIT BLOSSOMS - Flu Math Games This video lesson shows students that math can play a role in understanding how an infectious disease spreads and how it can be controlled. During this lesson, students will see and use both deterministic and probabilistic models and will learn by doing through role-playing exercises. There are no formal prerequisites, as students in any high school or even middle school math class could enjoy this learning video. But more advanced classes can go into the optional applied probability modeling that accompanies the module in a downloadable pdf file. The primary exercises between video segments of this lesson are class-intensive simulation games in which members of the class 'infect' each other under alternative math modeling assumptions about disease progression. Also there is an occasional class discussion and local discussion with nearby classmates.

Worksheet

 Name Description Replacement and Probability This lesson is designed to develop students' understanding of sampling with and without replacement and its effects on the probability of drawing a desired object. The lesson provides links to discussions and activities related to replacement and probability as well as suggested ways to work them into the lesson. Finally, the lesson provides links to follow-up lessons that are designed to be used in succession with the current one.

Perspectives Video: Expert

 Name Description MicroGravity Sensors & Statistics: Statistical analysis played an essential role in using microgravity sensors to determine location of caves in Wakulla County. Download the CPALMS Perspectives video student note taking guide.