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Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.
  1. Develop a uniform probability model by assigning equal probability to all outcomes, and use the model to determine probabilities of events. For example, if a student is selected at random from a class, find the probability that Jane will be selected and the probability that a girl will be selected.
  2. Develop a probability model (which may not be uniform) by observing frequencies in data generated from a chance process. For example, find the approximate probability that a spinning penny will land heads up or that a tossed paper cup will land open-end down. Do the outcomes for the spinning penny appear to be equally likely based on the observed frequencies?
Standard #: MAFS.7.SP.3.7Archived Standard
Standard Information
General Information
Subject Area: Mathematics
Grade: 7
Domain-Subdomain: Statistics & Probability
Cluster: Level 3: Strategic Thinking & Complex Reasoning
Cluster: Investigate chance processes and develop, use, and evaluate probability models. (Supporting Cluster) -

Clusters should not be sorted from Major to Supporting and then taught in that order. To do so would strip the coherence of the mathematical ideas and miss the opportunity to enhance the major work of the grade with the supporting clusters.
Date Adopted or Revised: 02/14
Content Complexity Rating: Level 3: Strategic Thinking & Complex Reasoning - More Information
Date of Last Rating: 02/14
Status: State Board Approved - Archived
Assessed: Yes
Related Courses
Related Resources
Formative Assessments
  • Marble Probability # Students are asked to determine probabilities based on observed outcomes and to determine if the outcomes appear to be equally likely.
  • Number Cube # Students are asked to determine probabilities based on observed outcomes and to determine if the outcomes appear to be equally likely.
  • Technical Difficulties # Students are given a scenario and asked to determine the probability of two different events.
  • Errand Runner # Students are asked to determine the probability of a chance event and explain possible causes for the difference between the probability and observed frequencies.
Image/Photograph
Lesson Plans
  • Water, Water Everywhere - Natural Disaster Water Filtration # Students will be tasked with an engineering challenge to design an effective and efficient portable water filtration system. The designs will take dirty water and make it clear so it can be boiled for safe drinking. This lesson aligns to both math and science content standards.
  • 3D Printing: Designing Robots Using Heredity and Probability # This lesson explores the importance of Punnett squares in determining genetic characteristics. It uses a 3D printer to demonstrate these characteristics.
  • Genetics Has Gone to the Dogs! # This lesson uses pooches to teach about pedigrees and the impact of artificial selection on individuals and populations as well as to drive home math concepts already discussed in lessons on Punnet squares.
  • Hair or No Hair- Please tell me Punnett Square # This lesson is designed to teach students how to read and interpret Punnett square with the final goal of them creating their own squares. The students will be able to determine possible genotypes and phenotypes of offspring based parent alleles.
  • Pick and Roll # This lesson is designed to teach students about independent and dependent compound probability and give students opportunities to experiment with probabilities through the use of manipulatives, games, and a simulation project. The lesson can take as long as three hours (classes), but can be modified to fit within two hours (classes).
  • Probability # This lesson is designed to develop students' understanding of probability in real life situations. Students will also be introduced to running experiments, experimental probability, and theoretical probability. This lesson provides links to discussions and activities related to probability as well as suggested ways to integrate them into the lesson. Finally, the lesson provides links to follow-up lessons designed for use in succession with the current one.
  • A Roll of the Dice # What are your chances of tossing a particular number on a number cube? Students collect data by experimenting and then converting the data in terms of probability. By the end of the lesson, students should have a basic understanding of simple events.
Perspectives Video: Experts
Problem-Solving Tasks
  • How Many Buttons? # This resource involves a simple data-gathering activity which furnishes data that students organize into a table. They are then asked to refer to the data and determine the probability of various outcomes.
  • Rolling Dice # This task is intended as a classroom activity. Students pool the results of many repetitions of the random phenomenon (rolling dice) and compare their results to the theoretical expectation they develop by considering all possible outcomes of rolling two dice. This gives them a concrete example of what we mean by long term relative frequency.
Tutorials
Video/Audio/Animation
  • Probability Explained # This 8-minute video provides an introduction to the concept of probability through the example of flipping a coin and rolling a die.
Virtual Manipulatives
  • Spinner # In this activity, students adjust how many sections there are on a fair spinner then run simulated trials on that spinner as a way to develop concepts of probability. A table next to the spinner displays the theoretical probability for each color section of the spinner and records the experimental probability from the spinning trials. This activity allows students to explore the topics of experimental and theoretical probability by seeing them displayed side by side for the spinner they have created. This activity includes supplemental materials, including background information about the topics covered, a description of how to use the application, and exploration questions for use with the java applet.
  • Interactive Marbles # This online manipulative allows the student to simulate placing marbles into a bag and finding the probability of pulling out certain combinations of marbles. This allows exploration of probabilities of multiple events as well as probability with and without replacement. The tabs above the applet provide access to supplemental materials, including background information about the topics covered, a description of how to use the application, and exploration questions for use with the Java applet.
  • Plinko Probability # The students will play a classic game from a popular show. Through this they can explore the probability that the ball will land on each of the numbers and discover that more accurate results coming from repeated testing. The simulation can be adjusted to influence fairness and randomness of the results.
MFAS Formative Assessments
  • Errand Runner # Students are asked to determine the probability of a chance event and explain possible causes for the difference between the probability and observed frequencies.
  • Marble Probability # Students are asked to determine probabilities based on observed outcomes and to determine if the outcomes appear to be equally likely.
  • Number Cube # Students are asked to determine probabilities based on observed outcomes and to determine if the outcomes appear to be equally likely.
  • Technical Difficulties # Students are given a scenario and asked to determine the probability of two different events.
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