Standard #: MA.912.P.2.3 (Archived Standard)


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Understand and use the concept of conditional probability, including: understanding how conditioning affects the probability of events and finding conditional probabilities from a two-way frequency table.


Remarks


Example: In a certain large city, 25% of all wage earners have a college degree. Of those who do have a college degree, 10% earn more than $80,000 per year, and of those who do not, 4% earn more than $80,000 per year. If a randomly selected wage earner earns more than $80,000 per year, what is the probability that (s)he has a college degree?

General Information

Subject Area: X-Mathematics (former standards - 2008)
Grade: 912
Body of Knowledge: Probability
Idea: Level 3: Strategic Thinking & Complex Reasoning
Standard: Determine Probabilities - Develop rules for finding probabilities of combined and complementary events. Understand and use conditional probability and the related Bayes’ Theorem.
Date Adopted or Revised: 09/07
Content Complexity Rating: Level 3: Strategic Thinking & Complex Reasoning - More Information
Date of Last Rating: 06/07
Status: State Board Approved - Archived

Related Resources

Lesson Plan

Name Description
The Monty Hall Problem or How to Outsmart a Game Show and Win a Car This lesson teaches students how to make decisions in the face of uncertainty by using decision trees. It is aimed for high school kids with a minimal background in probability; the students only need to know how to calculate the probability of two uncorrelated events both occurring (ie flipping 2 heads in a row). Over the course of this lesson, students will learn about the role of uncertainty in decision making, how to make and use a decision tree, how to use limiting cases to develop an intuition, and how this applies to everyday life.
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